Oil Prices Rise as Strait of Hormuz Risk Keeps Brent Near $85

Oil prices moved higher on Monday as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continued to support the energy market. Brent crude traded in the mid-$84 area, while West Texas Intermediate remained close to $79 per barrel as traders assessed the chances of a near-term reopening of the key shipping route.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical driver for crude oil. The waterway is one of the world's most important energy transit routes, carrying roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Fresh uncertainty over negotiations and conditions for reopening the route has kept a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices.

ING commodity strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson said the oil complex continues to receive support from uncertainty surrounding the Strait, although speculative investors have become more cautious. The bank noted that money managers reduced their net-long positions in both WTI and Brent for another week.

Net-long positions in NYMEX WTI declined by 7,257 contracts to 101,050, while speculative net longs in ICE Brent dropped by 20,361 contracts to 164,722. The decline suggests that traders remain reluctant to build aggressive bullish exposure despite persistent geopolitical risks.

The positioning data is particularly important because it shows a market balancing two competing forces. On one side, the possibility of prolonged disruption around Hormuz continues to support prices. On the other, improving supply conditions and uncertainty about global demand are limiting enthusiasm for a sustained rally.

US oil activity is also showing signs of recovery. ING reported that the US oil rig count increased by three to 454, its highest level since May 2025. At the same time, US crude exports remain elevated as international buyers look for alternative sources of supply. ING cautioned, however, that some of the recent export strength has been supported by inventory drawdowns rather than a significant increase in domestic production.

The US Energy Information Administration continues to track weekly crude production, inventories, imports, exports and petroleum-market conditions through its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, making upcoming inventory figures another important catalyst for energy traders.

Natural gas markets are also receiving support. ING noted that Henry Hub prices extended gains as warmer weather forecasts increased expectations for power-sector demand. Higher LNG feedgas flows are providing additional support, while new processing capacity associated with the Corpus Christi LNG facility could further increase gas demand.

For forex markets, persistent strength in crude oil can also influence currencies linked closely to energy exports, particularly the Canadian Dollar and Norwegian Krone. This is an indirect relationship rather than a guaranteed move, but prolonged oil-price strength can improve the terms-of-trade backdrop for major energy-exporting economies.

The immediate outlook for crude remains heavily dependent on developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Progress toward reopening the shipping route could remove part of the geopolitical premium currently supporting prices. Further delays or renewed escalation, however, could keep Brent and WTI elevated and increase volatility across commodities and related currency markets.